This week, more than 500 baseball writers will cast their votes for the players they believe should be inducted into Baseball's Hall of Fame on July 28, 2007. Although there are eleven first timers on this year's ballot, there are probably only three players that have a realistic shot at being elected. All have been on the ballot for some time now. Each received more than 50% of the votes cast in 2007 (election requires 75%). Each had the requisite "decade of dominance" during their respective careers, and all three compiled career numbers that require voters to stand up and take notice.
In addition to the three "top" candidates, there remains on the ballot a handful of players whose failure to gain admission has baffled fans and observers for years.
Let's examine the three big guns first, and then take a look at those who might still be on the outside looking in come election day.
Hall of Fame Credentials: 310 Saves; 3.01 Career ERA, 1978 Relief Pitcher of the Year; Led League in Saves three times. 9 Saves and a 2.78 ERA in 8 Postseason Series. 9 Time All-Star.
Many argue that Gossage should have been voted in on his first ballot, but feel that he has been kept out of the Hall of Fame for two reasons: (1) a general prejudice against relief pitchers; and (2) the advent of the one inning "closer" has de-valued the impressive accomplishments of the Goose.
The former problem seems to be disappearing: both Dennis Eckersley and Bruce Sutter have been inducted in the last five years alone, and Gossage came damn close in 2007, earning 71% of the vote.
The latter issue is more complex. Gossage's impact on the game cannot be fully understood through the prism of today's pitching schemes, where the best relievers routinely pitch just one inning per game. Today's closers usually come into games with the bases empty in their team's half of the ninth inning. Their job is to get three outs for the team and one save for the personal record.
But when Gossage pitched, things were very different. Although he was the best bullpen hurler on each of his teams from 1975 to 1985, he routinely came into games in the sixth or seventh inning, and often did so when the team was losing, or when the score was tied. And when Goose came in, he was expected to finish the game. As a result, despite pitching amost twice the innings that today's closers throw in an average season, Gossage had far fewer chances to pick up a save. Nevertheless, he was able to compile 301 of them in his career.
That fact, and his many other accomplishments highlighted above make Goose a near lock for election this time around.
Hall of Fame Credentials: .298 Career Average; 382 HR; 8 Seasons with 100 RBI; 1978 AL MVP; Six times in Top 5 MVP Voting; 9 Time All-Star.
The fact that Rice hasn't already been inducted is probably a personal insult to every Red Sox fan who watched his best years, which ran from 1975 through 1986. During that period, Rice was one of the very best in the game, hitting .308 with 360 home runs and 1,310 RBI. Even in the steroid era, those numbers seem very impressive, and that's because they are. Only Mike Schmidt had a better combination of power and run production during that 12-year span. Keep in mind, however, that Rice hit about 30 points higher than the Schmidt.
Furthermore, during his 12 years of dominance, Rice drove in over 100 runs eight times, and the four times he missed triple digits, he drove in 97, 94, and 86 (and 62 in the 105-game 1981 strike season.) Finally, his career totals are also virtually identical with the average left fielder who is already in the Hall.
Rice garnered 64% of the vote in 2007, and could finally break through in 2008.
Hall of Fame Credentials: 438 Home Runs, 314 Stolen Bases; 9-Time All-Star; NL Rookie of the Year 1977; NL MVP 1987; Four-Time Silver Slugger Award Winner; 8-Time Gold Glove Winner.
The Hawk has better credentials than many, many players who are already in the Hall of Fame. A former Rookie of the Year and National League MVP, Dawson is just one of three players to hit over 400 home runs and steal more than 300 bases in his career. Willie Mays and Barry Bonds are the other two.
In addition to his power and speed, Dawson could hit for average, and he was the best fielder at his position for an entire decade, winning eight Gold Gloves between 1980 and 1988.
Last year he received 57% of the vote. Without any first time locks (like Ripken and Gwynn were in 2007), the Hawk should see his numbers go up, but maybe not all the way to 75%. If the writers don't elect him this year, he will be the favorite veteran on the ballot in 2009.
While these players didn't earn 50% of the vote in 2007, the voters repeated rejection of them has drawn the ire of many players, fans and writers who followed their careers.
Blyleven causes a lot of arguments among baseball enthusiasts. His supporters cite Bert's 287 career wins, his 60 shutouts, and his 3,701 strikeouts, which rank him fifth on the all-time list. But critics respond that Blyleven was an average pitcher whose mere staying power enabled him to compile impressive career totals. Detractors point out that Bert never won a Cy Young award, won 20 games only once, and had almost as many losses (250) as wins.
One aspect of his career that is rarely mentioned, however, is his excellent postseason performance. Blyleven pitched eight games in five October series, and posted a 5-1 record with a 2.47 earned run average. One hopes that when considering the big righthander, voters will look closely at those statistics as well as the many seasons in which he pitched well but finished with a below average record because of poor run support.
Blyleven won 48% of the vote in 2007. Now in his eleventh year of eligibility, he will almost surely have to wait another year or two before his candidacy becomes a matter of urgency.
Morris was the winningest pitcher of the 1980s. He was also a postseason hero with the 1984 Tigers and the 1991 Twins, when he won the World Series MVP on the strength of a 2-0 record and a brilliant 10-inning shutout of the Atlanta Braves in Game 7. Although he never won a Cy Young award, Morris placed in the top 10 on seven different occasions between 1981 and 1992, which shows that he was a top pitcher for an extended period. Furthermore, his 254 career victories were not merely a product of pure longevity: Morris won 20 games three times, and topped 15 on another nine occasions.
Last year he earned just 37% of the vote, and thus still doesn't appear to be getting any closer to induction.
On paper, McGwire is the type of player who could conceivably get 98% of the vote. A burly slugger whose set the rookie home run record in 1987, Mark McGwire hit 583 home runs in his 15-year career despite missing almost three full seasons to injury. His 1998 home run race with Sammy Sosa that ended with both of them breaking Roger Maris's single season record is cited by many as the primary reason that baseball was able to rebound from the disastrous impact of the 1994 strike.
During his later career, which included four straight seasons with at least 50 home runs (1996-1999), McGwire was among the most beloved and most dangerous hitters in the game. However, the huge cloud of steroids now hangs over his head, and in the year of the Mitchell Report, one shouldn't expect to see Big Mac gain much more than the 23% he earned last year.
This year's ballot includes eleven players who have been nominated for the first time. While nothing is certain, of course, none of these players is expected to gain admission this year. Several prominent baseball writers, however, have made good arguments in support of Tim Raines. Here are the new candidates, listed alongside each name are some of the player's most outstanding statistics.
Brady Anderson (.256 Avg., 210 HR, 761 RBI)
Shawon Dunston (.269 Avg., 150 HR, 668 RBI)
Travis Fryman (.274 Avg., 223 HR and 1,022 RBI)
Dave Justice (.279 Avg., 305 HR and 1,017 RBI)
Chuck Knoblauch (.289 Avg., 407 Steals and 1,132 runs scored)
Robb Nen (314 Saves, 2.98 ERA)
Tim Raines (.294 Avg., 808 steals and 2,605 hits)
Jose Rijo (116-91, 3.24 ERA)
Todd Stottlemyre (138-121, 4.28 ERA)
Chuck Finley (200-173, 3.85 ERA)
Rod Beck (286 Saves, 3.30 ERA)
Although McGwire and the first timers will most likely not be elected, it is almost certain that one of the top three candidates will. After all, what fun is a Hall of Fame induction ceremony without players?
Voting results will announced on Tuesday January 8, 2007. The induction ceremony will be held at the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York on July 27, 2008.