Alex Rodriguez 2007 Projections
Full Season Statistical Predictions for A-Rod's 2007 Campaign
A-Rod is in the midst of his greatest season ever. If he keeps this up, what numbers will he finish with in 2007, and, more importantly, where will he finish in history?
It's no secret that Alex Rodriguez is having the best season of his 12-year MLB career, inlcuding a performance in April that will go in the record books. That is saying a whole lot for a man who's already won two MVP Awards, a batting crown and four home run titles. He's also smashed 488 home runs, all before the age of 32. Since he came to New York, however, the only story on A-Rod was his alleged inabilty to win the big one. Last year, the pressure got to A-Rod, and although his game didn't suffer nearly as much as the sports media would like fans to believe, the man did sustain some heavy blows to his reputation and his psyche. So, after the beating he took in 2006, observers wondered what would be left of Alex Rodriguez.
It turns out that there is a lot left to, and inside of, Mr. Rodriguez. So far during the 2007 baseball season, Alex Rodriguez is making everyone remember exactly why he became so rich and famous and so heavily criticized in the first place. It's called baseball. And once, again, he is the game's best player. But how great?
Alex Rodriguez's 2007 Statistics
Through June 11, 2007, Alex Rodriguez had played in sixty-one (61) games for the Yankees. In those games, which represent 37.0% of a full season, Rodriguez is batting .304, and he leads the major leagues with 24 home runs, 56 runs scored and 63 RBI. Alex also has a slugging percentage of .688, and he leads the majors in total bases with 156.
Alex Rodriguez's 2007 Projected Statistics
In the interests of creating a meaningful vantage point through which to view these projections, it is probably a good idea to take a look at A-Rod's best statisitical season in comparison to his 2007 projected stats. From a purely statistical standpoint, however, it's very difficult to determine which season was Rodriguez's best. He's had many fine years. But two seasons do stand out from the rest. They were:
1996: .358 batting average, 36 home runs, 123 RBI, 215 Hits, 54 doubles
2001: .318 batting average, 52 home runs, 135 RBI, 201 Hits, 34 Doubles
Taking A-Rod's current stats and projecting them out through a 162-game season, his final tally for 2007 would be:
a .304 batting average, 64 home runs, 168 RBI, 148 Runs, 182 Hits,37 Doubles, 414 Total Bases
The lower batting average notwithstanding, this would indeed be A-Rod's best season. It would be one of the best seasons the MLB has seen in many, many years. Should A-Rod reach the above totals, he would:
- set the American League single season home run record, still held by Roger Maris with 61
- drive in more runs than any player since Jimmie Foxx's 175 RBI in 1938
- rank 15th best in baseball history with 414 Total Bases.
It would be an historic season. Those numbers, should he reach them -- the odds not being in his favor -- should easily win Alex Rodiriguez a third MVP Award in five years. And, even more impressively, he would accomplish these feats amid constant criticism over his performance, being stalked by reporters who watch his every move and manufacture scandals including one regarding a "mystery blonde woman", gossip about his relationship with Derek Jeter, rumors about allegedly being traded by the Yankees and speculation over what the opt out clause in his contract will bring at the end of the 2007 season, among other things. This is a lot for anyone to handle, let alone someone who is on the verge of having a record breaking MLB season. Whatever happens, it will certainly be a testament to his mental toughness.
But what about the future? What records does he have a realistic chance to break? What numbers does he have a realistic chance to leave in the record books? Just how great could Alex Rodrigue become, on a projected basis, of course.
A-Rod's Career Projections
Rodriguez has now played the equivalent of twelve seasons in the Major Leagues. His career batting average is .305. He has hit 488 home runs. He has scored 1,414 runs. He has 1,410 RBI. Rodriguez also has 2,135 hits and 377 doubles in his baseball career.
Those numbers average out to 40 home runs, 118 runs scored, and 118 RBI. He has also averaged 178 base hits and 33 doubles a year.
Rodriguez turns 32 next month. It's reasonable to assume that he will play at least another 8 to 10 seasons. That would allow him to retire at age 40 or 42. No one can predict the future. Rodriguez could retire tomorrow to play quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys. He could get hurt. Or, he could just start to stink. His skills could start to diminish rapidly. Anything could happen. Assuming it doesn't and life goes according to plan, then it would be fair to project Rodriguez's stats over the next eight to ten years by using 75% of his average statistics for his first twelve seasons. This accounts for an eventual decline in abilities and playing time due to the aging process. Using this 75% figure, here are the results:
If A-Rod Plays Eight More Years, He'll Have:
- .305 batting average
- 728 home runs (3rd)
- 2,119 runs scored (7th)
- 2,118 RBI (3rd)
- 3,559 Hits (5th)
- 553 Doubles (22nd)
If A-Rod Plays Ten More Years, He'll Have:
- .305 Batting average
- 788 home runs (1st?)
- 2,316 runs scored (1st)
- 2,315 RBI (1st)
- 3,915 Hits (3rd)
- 597 Doubles (14th)
As impressive as A-Rod's projected stats are for 2007, they are downright awe inspiring for his entire career. It will be interesting to see how long the man wants to play. He doesn't need the money. He could probably do without the headaches. Or the boos. Or the criticism. Or the scnadals. On the other hand, the man plays through it all, and he keeps going, which probably means that he loves the game. And that could keep him playing for a long, long time.
