Can Derek Jeter Get 4,000 Hits?
The 32-Year Old Yankee Shortstop is Already More Than Halfway There
Does Derek Jeter have the ability, the staying power, and the desire to join Ty Cobb and Pete Rose in the 4,000 Hit Club? Right now, the answer is a definite maybe.
On Wednesday, May 23, 2007, New York Yankee shortstop Derek Jeter picked up three hits to raise his batting average to an American League best .367. More importantly, Jeter moved past Yankee legend Joe DiMaggio in total hits when he picked up number 2,215 in the fifth inning. After Jeter got that hit, the ESPN announcers covering the game, began to speculate when Jeter would get his 3,000th hit, and further discussed the possibility of the Yankee Captain someday approaching that very rare club, a club that has only two members. The 4,000 hit club. The discussion was worthwhile and certainly did raise a legitimate question: Can Derek Jeter collect 4,000 hits before he retires?
Derek Jeter's Hitting Career to Date
To project for the future, it is necessary to first look at the past. Although he played a handful of games during the 1995 season, Derek Jeter did not make his full season debut until 1996. That season, which was his rookie year, Jeter played 157 games and picked up 183 hits. Over the next 10 full seasons, Jeter logged five seasons with 200 or more hits. In the remaining four full seasons that he played, Captain Derek collected 190, 191, 191 and 188 hits. His only "down" year was 2003, when he missed 43 games to a dislocated shoulder, and still collected 156 hits.
From 1996-2006, Jeter played an average of 151 games and had an average of 196 hits per year. In 2007, Jeter has already collected 66 hits in just 45 games, which has the shortstop on pace for 238 hits. Assuming he slows down a little bit (just to be on the conservative side), it is reasonable to project Jeter out to 220 hits this year. If he does that, which at this point seems proabable, Derek Jeter will have a total of 2,370 hits at the end of the 2007 season. He will also be 33 years and three months old at that time.
The Next Five Seasons
Given that Jeter averaged just under 200 hits for the first 12 years of his career, it is reasonable to assume that over the next five seasons (when he will be 33 to 38 years old), Derek will average at leaat 180 hits per season. Again this is on the safe side, since Jeter has shown that he can hit at a much better clip. However, because he will be aging over that period, and is likely to miss a few more games due to nagging injuries that come with age, 180 per year is probably a fair estimate.
So, from the beginning of 2008 until the end of 2012, Jeter could reasonably collect 900 more hits, which would give him a total of 3,270 hits by the time he is 38. He would still need 730 hits.
Health and Desire
By the time he is 38, Jeter will probably have slown down a bit. Although he takes very good care of his body and seems to have a very durable physical and mental make-up, he is a human being, so it would be unrealistic to project that he could continue getting 180 to 200 hits per year after 2012. But it is certainly within the realm of possibility that Jeter could average 150 hits a year for as long as he could keep himself in Major League playing condition.
At 150 hits a year, Jeter would need to play until just beyond his 43rd birthday to reach four grand. As health, exercise and diet have all become more refined in baseball's recent years, players have continued palying and being productive well into their forties. Hall of Famers Paul Molitor (42), Pete Rose (45), Dave Winfield (44), Hank Aaron (42) and Rickey Henderson (44) are all members of the 3,000 hit club, and are all Hall of Fame level players who kept playing well into their forties. Given Jeter's body type and his excellent health record, it is reasonable to predict that he too could be productive until age 43.
Another factor will start to come into play at this time. Desire. Jeter has more money that he could ever spend. He already has four World Series rings, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards and, by that time, he will hold many Yankee and Major League Baseball hitting records. The question then is: how hungry will Jeter be by the time he is 38? He is a special player who seems to love baseball more than anything. And if he has a chance to accomplish something truly historic, such as getting 4,000 hits, Jeter may have plenty fo desire to get it done. Furthermore, if the Yankees are competitive, there is a chance that Jeter will be even more motivated to play, in the hopes of grabbing yet another World Series trophy.
Conclusion
So, assuming (quite safely) that Jeter will average 180 hits a year over the next five seasons (after 2007), he will have 3,270 hits by 2012, when he is 38 years old. Assuming his health and motivation are there, it is quite possible that Jeter could average 150 hits over the next five years, which would give hin a total of 4,020 hits by the close of the 2017 season, when he is 43 years old. If he has the desire and stays healthy, it is quite posible that Jeter could finish his career with more than 4,000 hits.
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Baseball's Current Top 10 Hiiters
