Can the Phillies Catch the Mets?

Philadelphia Trails New York by Only 2 1/2 Games in the N.L. East

Sep 18, 2007

With less than two weeks to go in the 2007 baseball season, the National League East division is suddenly up for grabs.

The Philadelphia Phillies have suffered many costly injuries during the 2007 baseball season. Their expected ace, Freddy Garcia, who won 17 games last year with the White Sox, managed only one victory this year before being shelved for the season with a shoulder injury. Their big young colt, Cole Hamels, has been out of action for almost a month with elbow pain. They also lost starter Jon Leiber for the year and saw their two best relievers, Tom Gordon and Brett Myers, miss more than two months each.

But the injuries haven't been limited to pitchers. No, not at all. The team also lost Ryan Howard for three weeks early in the season and Chase Utley for more than a month after the All-Star break. Add injuries to solid role players Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn, and the trainer's room looked a lot like a M*A*S*H* unit for much of the season.

Yet, with two weeks remaining in the season, the Phillies are still very much in the hunt for the National League East disivison title. In fact, after beating the St. Louis Cardinals last night in a 13-11 barnburner at the new Busch Stadium, the Phillies are just 2 1/2 games behind the boys from Shea Stadium.

They have gotten there for one reason and one reason only: they have beaten New York in their last eight consecutive head-to-head matchups. Just last weekend, in fact, the Mets had a chance to lower the boom on the Phillies, coming into a three game series at home with a six and a half game lead.

All they needed to do was win one game. That would have left Philly 5 1/2 games back with 13 to play, and thus, realistically out of the division chase. But the Phillies swept 'em in dramatic fashion. And then they won last night's prolonged batting practice session against the Redbirds.

So now the question really arises: can the Phillies really catch the Mets over the last two weeks of the 2007 baseball season?

The answer? Sure they can, but it's not very realistic, and it is going to be tough for a number of reasons.

As said above, the Phillies best chance of catching the Mets is beating them in direct matchups. But the teams don't play any more head-to-head games this year, so Philly will need to keep winning and hope the Mets play under .500 ball down the stretch if they want any real chance at the division crown.

With the two team's remaining schedules and relative pitching strengths, that scenario is at best a longshot. But it's a longshot that the Phillies potentially could overcome with their high-octane offense.

Philadelphia plays two more games against the Cardinals, then goes to Washington for a four game stand. After that, they return to Citizens Bank Ball Park to face the Braves and the Nationals in back-to-back three game series. Combined, these three non-playoff teams have a .476 winning percentage. Against these squads, the Phils have a .593 winning percentage. Promising number indeed.

But the Mets have an even better schedule. They play six against the Nationals, six against the Marlins and one against the Cardinals. These teams combined winning percentage is just .449, and the Mets have played them all very well this season, going 20-10 for a .667 winning percentage.

If the Mets can maintain their seasonal winning percentage against these opponents, they will win 9 of their last 13 games, and thus force the Phillies to go 11-1 just to force a tie.

Even if New York plays under their season winning percentage, and wins 7 out of 13 games, the Phillies would still need to go 9-3, or play .750 ball, to knot the race at season's end. While this scenario is possible, it's not very likely. Not with the Mets edge in starting pitching, that is.

The Mets have four starters that can give them six innings and three or fewer runs per game: Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, John Maine and El Duque. Since three of these guys are also hardened World Series veterans, it's a good bet that they will continue to deliver down the stretch.

The Phillies starters, on the other hand, are a couple of rookies (J.D. Durbin and Kyle Kendrick) that have struggled of late, the 44-year old Jaime Moyer, and the just-activated Cole Hamels. Their is a lot of talent in that mix, but it is probably too young, too old and too injured to win 9 out of 12 games.

Both teams have struggling relief (actually, pretty dreadful relief right now), so the Mets clear edge in starting pitching really lengthens the odds for Philadelphia.

The Phillies do have one hope. Their offense. It's explosive. They have four hitters -- Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand -- who could top 30 home runs and 100 RBI. They also have Chase Utley, who leads the N.L. in batting and will reach 100 RBI even though he missed thirty games to a broken hand.

That is an impressive collection of sluggers, especially for a National League lineup. These guys score and score and score, game after game after game. It's pretty remarkable. And they have been on fire of late, logging 30 runs in the last four games. Even with their very substandard pitching, these five -- and solid role players like Jayson Werth and Greg Dobbs -- can often win games all by themselves.

But it's hard to expect a team to average 8 or 9 runs per night at the tail end of a 162-game season. This group could do it, but the chances of the Phils overtaking the Mets are slim. Very slim.

So yeah, the Phillies can catch the Mets, but they probably won't. Now, how about those Padres . . .?

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