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MLB's Best Pitchers in 2007

Is Major League Baseball Having a Starting Pitching Rennaissance?

Jun 3, 2007

With more than 10 pitchers on pace for 20 wins and more than 200 strikeouts, this year's starting pitchers are far outpitching their brethren from just one year ago.

For the first time since the late Paleozoic Era, starting pitching is improving in Major League baseball. That's right. Starting pitching is back in the 2007 season, at least through the first one-third (1/3) of the year. At this point in the year, pitching statistics across the board are much better than they have been in years. Among top starters, there are more than dozen pitchers on pace to win 20 games, strike out 200 or more hitters and log ERAs below 3.00. Here's a quick look at the specifics and an explanation for the changes.

Big Winners among Starting Pitchers So Far in 2007

In the 2006 season, not a single Major League pitcher won 20 games. In the American League, Johan Santana and Chien-Ming Wang each had 19 victories. In the National League, no pitcher won more than 16 games. That includes Cy Young Award winner Brandon Webb, who won just 16.

In sharp contrast to 2006, there are currently 12 pitchers in the American Leage and National League on pace to win 20 or more games. With one-third of the season passed, the follwing starters have at least seven (7) victories, which, if extrapolated over the whole season, works out to 21 total wins:

John Lackey (9), Cole Hamels (8), C.C. Sabathia (8), Josh Beckett (8), Brad Penny (7), John Smoltz (7), Jake Peavy (7), Dontrelle WIllis (7), Randy Wolf (7), Jeff Suppan (7), and Dice-K (7).

While some of these moundsmen will slow down or suffer injuries that could interfere with their quest for 20 victories, it is a good bet that some, and perhaps most, will in top 20 wins.

Strikeouts at a decade-long high.

In 2006, only six pitchers struck out 200 or more batters. This season, with 54 games already played, a hurler would need at least 67 strikeouts to be on pace for 200 Ks across the whole season. This year, there are a total of 13 starters on pace for 200 or more punchouts.

In the National League, there are Peavy (92), Hamels (91), Webb (75), Wolf (74), and Aaron Harang (68). In the Junior Circuit, there is Erik Bedard (88), Santana (87), A.J. Burnett (83), Sabathia (75), Scott Kazmir (71), James Shields (69), Dice-K (68) and Boof Bonser (68).

Top Starters Keeping ERAs Low

Only two pitchers posted ERAs below 3.00 in 2006: AL Cy Young winner Johan Santana (2.77) and the Houston Astros Roy Oswalt (2.98). This year, there are 17 pitchers with sub 3.00 ERAs, seven of whom have posted averages below 2.50. That is a big change, at least among the elite. But a look across the entirety of pitchers in both leagues reveals that pitching is better overall, not just among the top hurlers.

League Wide Pitching Statistics - 2006 v. 2007

League Earned Run Average:

(AL) 4.56 ERA in 2006 has dropped to 4.43 ERA in 2007.
(NL) 4.49 ERA in 2006 has dropped to 4.12 ERA in 2007.

Batting Average Against:

(AL) Batting Average Against has dropped from .275 in 2006 to .265 in 2007.
(NL) Batting Average Against has dropped from .265 in 2006 to .257 in 2007.

Home Runs Hit

(AL) Home Runs have dropped from 2,518 in 2006 to a projected 2,218 in 2007.
(NL) Home Runs have dropped from 2,868 in 2006 to a projected 2,433 in 2007.

Total Changes

That's a 9% decrease in National League ERA and a 3% decrease in American League ERA.
It's also an 18% decrease in NL Homers, and a 14% decrease in AL Homers.
There is also just over a 4% drop in batting averages.

What Accounts for the Changes?

With the exception of the truly dramatic drop in home runs across the Major Leagues, the other pitching statistics are not as drastic, but they are still quite significant. After nearly two decades of steady growth in hitting at the expense of starting pitching numbers, batting power and hitting averages have dropped. What is even more striking is how many solid pitchers are now pitching like true aces. Regardless, the long and short of it is that pitching has gotten better, finally. There are a number of explanations for this change.

First, of course, is the Major League testing program for steroids and other performance-enhancing drugs. Since the League began testing, hitters bodies have gotten smaller and home run totals have dropped. Not drastically, but enough to have an impact on pitching stats and game results.

Secondly, several young pitchers are coming of age this season. They pitchers include Cole Hamels, Jake Peavy, Josh Beckett, Brad Penny and (maybe) Scott Kazmir.

Third, a number of hurlers whose careers have been marred by injuries are finally healthy. These include Randy Wolf and A.J. Burnett, among others.

Conclusion

Regardless of the cause, it is clear that pitching is trying to take back the game, even if just a little. It is going to be very interesting to see if pitchers can keep this up all season, or if the hitters will take back control of baseball during the remaining two-thirds of the season. With Roger Clemens coming back into the mix, it should be interesting. Keep watching and reading for the answer!

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