Offensive Production is Down
Has the Use of Performance Enhancing Substances Decreased?
Acknowledging that April is a cruel month and that pitchers are usually ahead of hitters in cold weather, offensive production in April, 2008 has decreased substantially.
The first month of the 2008 baseball season has been played. It might be accurate to state that the first month of the new era in which most players don't want to risk being caught using performance enhancing substances is complete. Acknowledging that April is a cruel month and that pitchers are usually ahead of hitters in cold weather, offensive production in April, 2008 has decreased substantially compared to offense in 2007.
Decreased Offense in Both Leagues
American League batters have hit .260 in 2008 compared to .271 for all of 2007. The 2008 slugging average is .398 compared to last season's .423, and teams have hit 342 home runs, which projects to about 141 home runs per team. In 2007, teams averaged about 161 home runs. In 2008, American League teams have averaged 4.50 runs per game compared to last year's 4.90.
National League batters have been more offensive than their American League counterparts. They batted .256 in April compared to .266 last year, and slugged .404 this April compared to last season's .423 (interesting that without the DH, the National League slugging average was identical to the American League's). In April, National League teams are on a pace to average 149 home runs for the season compared to last year's 169.. In April, National League teams scored an average of 4.55 runs a game compared to 4.71 in 2007.
April Weather Conditions Do Not Favor Batters
One reason is the month of April. The conditions are not conducive to high offensive production, but one must wonder if baseball's most recent attempts at curbing performance enhancing substances has contributed to the decrease in offense. None of us will ever know with certainty which players cheated, but some players who might have been increasing their offensive production may have stopped using drugs society frowns upon.
Home Runs Are the Key
Home runs are the key. A drop of 20 home runs per team in BOTH leagues is a significant decrease and would give ammunition to the position that many players who used performancing enhancing substances are no longer using them. Run production is down, but not by a great amount and it should increase during the summer. There are ways to score without hitting home runs.
Stars Who Have Poor Seasons May Be Suspect
There is a greater incentive in 2008 for players to NOT use performance enhancing substances because there is a greater chance that they may get caught and the penalties are more severe. In the past, players who suddenly increased their home run totals radically or performed like a 25 year-old when they were in their early forties were suspected of getting illegal help. This season, stars who have had a number of strong seasons, both hitters and pitchers, will be carefully scrutinized, and some players whose performance falls off will be suspected of having help during their best seasons -- help that is no longer easily available.
Vital Questions
Will teams return to trying to score runs the old fashioned way? Will fans see more sacrifices, stolen bases, and hit and runs? Will batters' strikeouts decrease? Will fewer strikeouts result in pitchers going deeper into a game because strikeouts require more pitches than other outs? Will the time of games decrease if there are fewer strikeouts or will more attempted steals slow down the game? This should be an interesting season.
References:
- 2008 American League at Baseball-Reference
- 2007 American League at Baseball-Reference
- 2008 National League at Baseball-Reference
- 2007 National League at Baseball-Reference
