Was Nolan Ryan an Average Pitcher?

Many Fans, Players and Writers Say He Was Overrated. Are They Right?

Sep 11, 2007

Ryan threw seven no-hitters, struck out more batters than anyone else in history and won 324 games. So why is he rarely acknowledged as one of the game's great pitchers?

Nolan Ryan doesn't get enough love. Or respect. For 27 seasons, Ryan plied his trade like few others in the history of baseball. He won 324 games, struck out more batters than any other pitcher in the game's history, and hurled a Major League record seven no-hitters, his last two coming at ages 43 and 44, respectively.

Ryan also had a career ERA of 3.19, which is better than Bob Lemon, Bob Feller, Steve Carlton, Don Sutton, Lefty Gomez, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson and many, many more.

Yet his former General Manager Buzzie Bavasi called Ryan "nothing more than flashy .500 pitcher." His ex-teammate Tom Seaver said Ryan was just "a good thrower who couldn't control his pitches." Why didn't these guys, who definitely know baseball and pitching, have a better opinion of the Ryan Express?

Well, the two major criticisms of Nolan Ryan are that he had a career winning of just .526 and that he walked too many batters. And those critcisms have been repeated so often, in articles and on internet discussion boards, that it seems people are starting to ignore all of the other incredible statistics that Ryan put up.

The two criticisms, however, shouldn't detract from Ryan's remarkable accomplishments. As explained herein, his "average" yearly record was mostly the result of lousy teams who gave him almost no run support, and the many walks he surrendered are offset by the fact that Ryan gave up fewer hits per nine innings and struck out more hitters than any other pitcher in baseball history.

If Ryan had played on, oh, say the Philadelphia Phillies during the 1970s and '80s, he would have won more than 350 games. Easily. That's because the teams he worked for gave him very little run support, and as a result, he lost a lot of games that he simply should have won.

A fine example of this was the 1987 season. While pitching for the Houston Astros, Nolan Ryan led the National League in ERA (2.76) and strikeouts (270). He also had the most strikeouts per nine innings (11.68), the least hits per nine innings (6.55), the best strikeout-to walk ratio (3.10 to 1) and the top adjusted ERA (142) in the Senior Circuit.

He must have won the Cy Young Award, right? Nope. He didn't even make the top five. Wanna know why? Because his record was 8-16.

Yes, that is correct. Ryan led the N.L. in all major pitching categories and still got only eight wins because his team so often failed to score in games when Nolan had a Quality Start (which is defined by baseball statisticians as pitching at least six innings and surrendering three or fewer earned runs).

Specifically, Ryan had seven quality starts that resulted in losses and nine more in which he received no decision. That's sixteen more wins and seven less losses that he could have gotten in that one season alone.

But it wasn't just the '87 Astros that messed up Ryan's win-loss record. Look at some of the seasons he suffered through with the California Angels.

In just those five seasons, Ryan had 49 quality starts that resulted in a loss or a no decision. If Ryan had just gotten wins in 60% of those games, he would have registered another 30 career victories (and many, many fewer losses). In other words, if Ryan had played for a decent offensive team during those five seasons, he'd have won 354 games.

And probably even more. A similar analysis of his years with the Mets, Astros and Rangers shows that Ryan, had the most-ever quality starts that did not result in a win.

Ryan walked a lot of batters. But that did not detract from his effectivensss as a pitcher. Here's why. Firsta and foremost, Ryan gave up just 6.55 hits per nine innings, which is the best such ratio in the history of baseball. The best ever. Accordingly, his WHIP, which combines hits and walks surrendered every nine innings, was better than many current and future Hall of Famers. Lefty Gomez, Lefty Grove, Bob Feller, Tom Glavine and Steve Carlton, all of whom are usually regarded as better pitchers than Ryan, had higher WHIPs than Nolan.

Furthermore, because Ryan struck out so many batters, walks were less harmful to his game than they might have been to another pitcher. When you strike out the side, it doesn't matter if you walk two guys, so long as you don't let them score. Ryan's excellent career ERA shows that more often than not, he didn't let them score. So the problem was not walks.

The copyright of the article Was Nolan Ryan an Average Pitcher? in Baseball is owned by James Lincoln Ray. Permission to republish Was Nolan Ryan an Average Pitcher? in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.