It's that time of year again. It's February, and all of the good free agents have signed on with new teams for big money. All except the very best one: Roger Clemens. This is nothing new for the best pitcher in baseball history. Clemens has retired and un-retired every year since 2003. Here is why he will keep doing more of the same.
Over the past three seasons pitching for the Houston Astros, Clemens has a record of 38-27. However, he should have done even better. During each of those seasons, Clemens received the lowest run support of any pitcher in baseball, and he lost 15 games when he let up just one or two runs.
Clemens also has an aggregate ERA of 2.37 over those three seasons. No starting pitcher has even come close to that figure. The next best is Johann Santana at 2.74. Furthermore, Clemens's WHIP (Walks Surrendered + Hits Given Up Divided by Innings Pitched) is among the best in the game at an anemic 1.07. Only Santana's is lower. Finally, the Rocket can still bring the heat. Over the past three years, only Santana, Halladay, Ben Sheets and Curt Schilling have averaged more strikeouts per nine innings.
So, it is very clear that Clemens still has the goods.
There are only six pitchers who have won at least 350 games: Cy Young (511), Walter Johnson (416), Christy Mathewson (373), Grover Cleveland Alexander (373) Warren Spahn (363) and James "Pudd" Galvin (361). Only Warren Spahn pitched after 1930. Accordingly, many baseball historians consider him the winningest pitcher of the modern era. Clemens is just 15 victories behind Spahn, and he will reach that number if he pitches at least three-quarters of a season. Also, if he pitches two more seasons, he has a legitimate shot at 5,000 strikeouts.
Right now, Greg Maddux has 333 wins. Even if Maddux has a poor year in San Diego, he will still get 10 to12 wins, leaving him just 3 to 5 wins away. So if Clemens does not pitch in 2007, you can bet your life that Maddux will pitch in 2008. Another pitcher closing in on Clemens's career numbers is Randy Johnson. The Big Unit is only sixty strikeouts behind the Rocket for second place on the all-time list. Unless Clemens pitches this year, he will soon find himself in third place, probably forever.
Clemens recently admitted that he was "failing at retirement." Good! Everyone should be so lucky. His fans would like to see him fail for two or three more years. But where should he play? Certainly not in Houston. Yes, they have been very good to him, but their offense stinks, and too much is at stake for him to have another year of weak run support. Going back to the Red Sox would be special. Clemens could pitch with his first team. He could probably win back a lot of the fans he lost when he was booted out of Boston after the 1996 season. But the best choice for Clemens is probably the New York Yankees. They already have a strong staff in Mike Mussina, Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Kei Igawa. They also have a potent offense and a very good bullpen. If he comes back to New York, Clemens might just find himself pitching in his seventh World Series.