Yankees Face Many Questions in '08
Point/Counterpoint on the 2008 New York Baseball Season
Just having a little bit of fun while trying to figure out just how good or bad the Yankees will be in 2008.
Point
This season will be the beginning of a new Yankee dynasty. This team can’t lose. They have the best player in baseball in Alex Rodriguez, who just signed the biggest deal in sports history and looks to have finally won over Yankee fans. He’ll have another monster year.
They have the consummate on-field leader in Derek Jeter, who gets 200 hits and scores 100 runs even when he has a down year.
Their new manager, Joe Girardi, was the manager of the year in 2006, when he led the Florida Marlins, who were far and away the youngest and least expensive team in baseball, to a very competitive season and a .500 winning percentage. His experience leading that group of kids will surely come in handy as the manager of a team that needs its youngsters to produce. He also has the respect of the team's veteran leadership.
Their offense is stacked. Joining A-Rod and Jeter are Bobby Abreu and Hideki Matsui, both of whom drove in more than 100 runs last year, and Johnny Damon, who is the best leadoff hitter of the last decade. Jorge Posada, also the dominating force at his position over the last ten years, comes to camp hot off the best season of his career and with a fat contract in his pocket that he is going to want to live up to.
But their offense isn’t just a collection of veteran all-stars; they’ve also got young blood that will help the team through the dragging heat of August and keep them steady, fresh and healthy all year. Robinson Cano is already a candidate for the batting title. Melky Cabrera is one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball and he’s still only 22. Shelley Duncan showed promise in 2007, hitting 7 homers in just 74 at-bats. All three will contribute.
They also shored up their middle relief by signing LaTroy Hawkins, who pitched very well last season even though he had to toil in hitter-friendly Coors Field. Mariano Rivera is still a top five closer during the regular season, and he's the best in the business when it comes to October baseball; he showed that he's still got it when he shut down the Cleveland Indians in last season's American League Division Series.
They’ll win 95 games, at least, and will get back to the World Series for the first time in five years.
Counterpoint
The Yankees come into this season at a crossroads. Their team is comprised of one-half aging veterans and one-half unproven youngsters. They have a new manager, who is trying to replace a legend. We all know how that usually works out. Their hard-fisted, tough-minded owner, George Steinbrenner, is too old and perhaps to ill to run the team and has ceded control to his sons, Hal and Hank, who have already made some very questionable personnel and managerial decisions.
Let’s get more specific.
Pitching is going to be a big problem. Andy Pettitte, their most proven and reliable starter, just endured the most miserable off-season of his life. Not only was he outed as an HGH user, but he was also pressured into testifying against his friend and former teammate, Roger Clemens. He’s getting older, and with all of these distractions, it’s not even reasonable to assume that Pettitte can win the 15 games he won last year.
Chien-Ming Wang is a good pitcher, but he’s struggled in the role of staff ace. This is going to be a hard season for him because without a strong Pettitte, he is the only thing remotely close to a sure thing in the rotation. That is a lot of pressure.
Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy surely have promise, but to expect either one of them to immediately acclimate to the the job of a Yankee starter is unreasonable. They are also just kids. The powers that be will want to bring them along slowly. The team won't let either one pitch more than 160-170 innings, and that means they will have to rely on Kei Igawa to fill in the gaps.
Joba Chamberlain is great, maybe the best talent to come into pitching in a decade. But is he a starter or his he a reliever? No one has any idea, not even the Yankees.
A-Rod is remarkable. No argument there. But if he’s so great, why haven’t the Yankees won in the past four years, especially with the lineup support and protection they have given baseball’s richest player?
Their middle bullpen is still a huge question mark. LaTroy Hawkins is not going to pitch like he did in 2007. Rather, he will most likely throw the way he has thrown his entire career: inconsistently.
They also don’t have a first baseman yet.
Jorge Posada rocks, but he will not hit as well as he did last year; his .338 average was more than 60 points above his career mark. Melky Cabrera is a great defensive player, for sure, but can the Yankees win with a centerfielder who won’t hit more than 12 or 13 homers? Bobby Abreu seems to have lost his power. Johnny Damon looked pretty beat up at the end of last season.
Finally, one has to question the wisdom of Hal and Hank Steinbrenner for passing on the chance to get the best starting pitcher in the game in favor of two unproven youngsters.
The Yankees are still a very good offensive team, but there pitching is suspect and their core of star are a year older. They will struggle all year long to catch the Red Sox, and at times they are going to look great, but the Yankees will ultimately lose because they will lack consistency from their starters and their middle relief. 85 wins, maximum.
See how this point/counterpoint game works?
